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1984 is not just a novel, now it’s a target

Obama did better in Oregon than expected (+30 rather than the expected +28 delegates). Clinton did better in Kentucky than expected (+37 rather than the expected +28-31 delegates).

According to RCP that brings us to:

Candidate: Pledged: Supers: Total: Needs
Obama 1653 306 1959 66
Clinton: 1499 279 1778 247

Update: I updated the table to match final counts from last night.
Note that DemConWatch has 3 more pledged for Obama and 1 more pledged for Clinton than RCP, not sure why.

Careful analysis by Poblano projects that Obama will probably add another 41 and Clinton will add another 45 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico (June 1st), South Dakota, and Montana (both June 3rd). Since my own poll watching and the leaked spreadsheet also agree, let’s treat it as likely, give or take a few delegates.

That means that Obama only needs enough super delegate endorsements between now and those last few primary elections to get to 1984 total (2025 minus the expected 41).

According to RCP that means he only needs 27 more super delegate endorsements to win the nomination. At this point, with 212 uncommitted, I consider that to be very likely. The beautiful fact is that if at least 27 super delegates endorse Obama, but no more than 68 do; then it will not be a super delegate’s endorsement, but a pledged delegate vote won in one of the three remaining primaries that puts Obama over the top.

That would be elegant and beautiful. So watch the total delegates column for Obama; if he gets to 1984 this nomination will be over on June 3rd, and it will have been nice to give every eligible state and territory the chance to vote. For the ever hopeful, Clinton only needs to get to 1980 to achieve the same thing (because she is projected to squeeze a few more delegates out of Puerto Rico than he is). To get to 1980, she’d need 205 super delegate endorsements between now and June 1st…. still possible, but highly unlikely.

2008 05 21 snolan Politics Comments (0) Permalink

Maryland’s 4th Congressional District, Special Election

Maryland voters in the 4th Congressional District will get to vote in a special election on June 17th, 2008. You can register to vote, and still vote on the 17th so long as you register on or before 9:00pm May 30th. Go register if you live in Maryland’s 4th CD.

Per Maryland’s State Board of Elections, your choices in this Special Election are:

Not sure if you live in MD-04? Don’t fret, it is really crazy and no one can figure it out without looking on a map or checking the databases…

Medium sized map of MD-04 and a funny shaped district.

2008 05 20 snolan Local
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Give a little to Leslie Byrne and volunteer for her campaign

I have already contributed a small amount to “Byrne for Congress” to help her win the Democratic Nomination and the 11th congressional district of Virginia. The 11th will almost certainly go to the Democratic winner of the primary on June 10th. Incumbent Republican Tom Davis is retiring, so there is no incumbent advantage. The district has been trending more and more Democratic for a long time.

Leslie Byrne won the district solidly in 2005 against Bill Bolling (R) for the office of Lt Governor (he narrowly won state-wide, but she crushed him by 10 points in the 11th district). She has been the congresswoman of the 11th before they redistricted it from her. She is an excellent candidate and leader and would represent the 11th far, far better than Gerry Connolly.

Connolly has not really been against the Iraq War until it became politically expedient for him recently. Connolly has a few too many ties to the military-industrial complex and big business to honestly represent common working people of the 11th district. Connolly was not willing to come out and endorse Obama nor Webb until it became clear that those were winning propositions for his own campaign. Connolly only last November won the election to be the Fairfax County Chairman of the Board of Supervisors, and he should give a little time to Fairfax County before using that office to launch his own political interests.

Byrne has been against the Iraq War from the beginning, she helped get Webb to run for senate. She is not currently in any office at all, and this one should be hers. No one has worked harder for the people of the 11th district for over a decade, not even incumbent Tom Davis (for whom the office is and was popularity trophy).

2008 05 19 snolan Foreign Policy
Politics
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Anyone still watching the Democratic Nomination Process?

I have been updating a spreadsheet with delegate and super delegate counts, and projections, and poll data of the remaining states and territories; and for the last couple of weeks RealClearPolitics has been reporting different numbers than DemConWatch pretty consistently.

According to RCP, Obama only needs 117 more delegates to win; but according to DemConWatch he needs 113. Both delegate tracking sites agree that Clinton needs 306 delegates to win.

Tomorrow, Hillary Clinton will likely pick up between 28 and 34 delegates from Kentucky and between 23 and 24 from Oregon (51-58 total). Barack Obama will pick up between 17 and 23 from Kentucky and between 28 and 29 from Oregon (45-52 total). Neither will have enough delegates to declare victory, but Obama will only need between 65 and 72 per RCP and between 61 and 68 per DCW. Clinton would still need around 250 to win. There are something like 222 uncommitted super delegates. It will still be possible for her to win (that remains possible because Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota still have 189 pledged delegates to commit).

This still looks like it will not be complete until the first week of June, and Obama is drawing staggeringly large crowds when he speaks publicly.

Update: Today RCP updated it’s numbers and they are closer to DCW now, 112 or 110 depending on which one you follow.

2008 05 19 snolan Personal Comments (0) Permalink

Once again the great orator speaks!

The great orator does it again, this time in response to George W. Bush’s and John McCain’s hypocritical lies. Check it out for yourself and ask if this is not the leader we have been looking for…



Clearly Obama gets right to the heart of the issues and he calls Bush out for airing our nation’s laundry out in front of a foreign government during their time of celebration. Obama then goes on to point out how Bush’s failed policies that McCain supported Bush on made Iran stronger and more dangerous, for both America and for Israel.
The more people who see this the better off we’ll all be, because the both travesties will finally be over. The travesty of Republican control of our government, and even more importantly, the travesty of neo-con control of the Republican party.

2008 05 16 snolan Foreign Policy
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Please give a little to the Glenn Nye campaign

Today I am sending a small donation to the “Friends of Glenn Nye” to help him win the second congressional district of Virginia away from an irresponsible and spitefully corrupt Thelma Drake.
Glenn Nye’s campaign has done wonders with volunteers and only lacks a little money to get their message out to the voters of the second district. If we can get a thousand people to send relatively small amounts, we can make a huge difference.

I’ll be suggesting other candidates too, but at the moment we can really make a difference in the 2nd district. Even if you don’t live there, the irresponsible actions and antics of Thelma Drake do impact everyone in the United States. Send a message and 20, 30, 50, or 100 bucks to “Friends of Glenn Nye” at:
http://www.glennnye.com/home/.

2008 05 16 snolan Politics Comments (0) Permalink

Great Leaders

A cousin of mine, who has since recanted her silly impression, once commented to me that she felt that George W. Bush was a great leader. Of course I scoffed, which perhaps was impolite, but what is the correct response to such an outrageous statement?

Great leaders praise in public, criticize in private; that is what I learned in the military.
Great leaders inspire their followers to do good things for the right reasons without being told to.

It is embarrassing that this ignorant fool and traitor is airing his own stupidity out in front of a foreign government, during their anniversary celebration. Impeach him how, arrest him on charges and begin a public trial. If found guilty, put the ignorant fool in jail or hang him, he is in favor of the death penalty after all.

Even better, deny him entry to this country. He looks like a terrorist to me…

Olbermann says it far better than I do, and I agree with every single word

2008 05 15 snolan Foreign Policy
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Sometimes the simple things please the most

I have been using Adium for ages to to all my online chit-chat with folks who use AOL Instant Messenger, Jabber, and Yahoo Messenger (Adium supports MSN Messenger too, but I refuse to use that). Adium’s interface is vastly better than the one you get from AOL, and miles better than most of the others I have used on all platforms. Tabbed conversations, clean text only when you want that (or flashy colors if you prefer that), user programmable IM sounds (I use modified Babylon 5 and Tokyo Subway sets).

The one thing that has been very annoying about Adium is that it was really weak at initiating chat rooms. Two way conversations have always worked very well, and joining other people’s chat rooms has always worked, but initiating your own was a problem… until v1.2.5 (released April 28th, 2008). Now chats can be initiated reliably and even bookmarked, so you have semi-permanent chats available to re-start with the same invitees all the time (like your team of co-workers to coordinate server builds).

Anyway, today is a great day because of a little thing like chat rooms in Adium. Yippea!

2008 05 15 snolan Computers Comments (1) Permalink

Fantastic writing of Stephen Retherford

If you are not reading Stephen Retherford (aka Sisyphus, Hoosier in Virginia) regularly, you should be. He has posted the most thoughtful, well researched, and interesting stuff I am reading on the web for quite some time, very consistently and with remarkable insight. He’s changed my mind a few times, and would have more except that I am typically in agreement with him before I begin reading.

2008 05 15 snolan Blogging Comments (0) Permalink

WTF!?!?!? This is so wrong!

An Italian boyfriend of a Virginia woman is being held (for 10 days and counting) simply for wanting to visit his girlfriend? He broke no laws, is not a suspected terrorist, has not overstayed his visa, and has a history of visiting and leaving on time.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/14/us/14visa.html

Wow – there is a special hell reserved for those who… … …

Update: correct an error on my part where I thought he was a husband to a Virginia wife. They are not married, not that this makes much difference.

2008 05 14 snolan News Comments (0) Permalink