Life is a State of Mind

This November, voters in the United States are going to get something entirely new. A presidential election where the swing states and safe states are not the same as they have been for the last four presidential elections.

If Hillary Clinton were facing off with John McCain on November 4th, we’d have a virtual repeat of the last four elections: same safe states, same swing states, same rhetoric, same attacks. The numbers would skew a little differently, one way or the other. McCain would have the baggage of eight horrible years of Bush presidency hanging around his neck and dragging him down, he’d also get a little less support from the theocratic arm of the party. Countering that he would get the mysogynist vote from those who cannot accept a woman, and for better or worse, Hillary sets off a strong negative reaction in many people and that would boost McCain’s numbers. Third party candidates would enjoy yet another election where there was little difference between the candidates on the war, the size of government, and the economy. We’d have a virtual replay of 2000, and 2004 – with better backing for the Democratic candidate than in either of those elections. It would be up in the air.

It is very good news that Hillary will not be the Democratic nominee, for having Obama as the nominee completely changes the election dynamic. Once safe states become swing states (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Indiana). Swing states of the past become very safe for McCain (Missouri, West Virginia, Florida) or Obama (Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maine). The demographic support lines run on different axis, and it becomes harder to predict outcomes. Campaigning will have to happen in more states. Issues suddenly appear that were non-existent between Clinton and McCain: the war, the economy, fiscal responsibility. The irony is that Obama will draw some fundamentalist Christians from McCain (Obama is the only religious man in the race, McCain and Clinton are both secular) and some fiscal conservatives (Obama has the most fiscally responsible policy papers of the three of them). On the other hand, Obama will drive away willfully ignorant voters and racists (it is not clear if they will stay home or vote against him).

Clinton’s argument that she has a better chance in the general election is patently false, and she is basing only on the potential for losing a few swing states (Florida, West Virginia, and Ohio) and one usually safe one (Pennsylvania). She has a kernel of truth there. Pennsylvania probably does shift from safe Democratic for her, to swing state status for Obama. Her chances in Ohio, Florida, and West Virginia are better than Obama’s for making a dent in McCain’s delegate count, but she is being disingenuous when she takes that line because she neglects to also mention that Obama potentially brings several states to the table that would never have gone for a Democrat before, especially her: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, etc, etc, etc. He also makes several states that are borderline for her quite safe for Obama (Washington, Oregon).

Poblano has an excellent analysis up at FiveThirtyEight.com showing likely head to head comparisons of both Clinton and Obama against McCain. It is still 6 months to the general election, and a lot could happen between now and then, but in general I think it is safe to assume that both Democratic candidates will fare better than the estimates now, and both a lot better. The key is that even now, Obama fares better than Clinton in the electoral college votes against McCain. Her argument that he will have trouble winning the general election is wrong. He’ll win it big time, and he’ll have better coat-tails to ride for people wanting Democratic, progressive, and sensibly conservative Senators and Congress-critters.

I look forward to a different election, a different congress, and a different president. I am tired of being embarrassed by my government.