So we are nearly half-way through the last month before the General Election. I have been pondering what this year’s “October Surprise” might be, and I stumbled over this excellent article by by Rany Jazayerli:
I have also been perplexed that McCain’s campaign has been throwing everything they’ve got at Obama too early, and wondered what they might have held in reserve to try to save McCain’s campaign late in the game… and I also am getting more and more convinced that McCain has nothing left.
So the only remaining game changing even would have to be a dramatic, attention-grabbing act of international terrorism. Unlike Rany Jazayerli, I think there is a serious chance that the surprise may come from the departing Bush administration; but I agree that the most likely source of surprise is from Osama bin Laden or another terrorist group from the Middle East. I completely agree that bin Laden’s video release in 2004 was an attempt to shift the election in favor of continued war (and therefor for Bush); Bush’s policies have helped bin Laden’s recruiting more than anything else we’ve done as a nation in 50 years. It makes sense that bin Laden would favor more war and therefore would want McCain to be in the oval office. We are dangerously close to war with Pakistan already, so Al-Qaeda can probably sense greater escalation is just around the corner. I am guessing at a 65% probability that sometime this month, towards the end of the month we will either see a dramatic attempt at terrorism or a video with Osama bin Laden on it released to the world’s media.
It will be a crude attempt to change the outcome of the American general election, and this time, I think it will fail. I believe Americans have smartened up enough that the only people fooled by such a ploy are the fools who are already voting for McCain and Palin. The deciders will not shift one bit, and Barack Obama will be our next President as the result of a landslide election of historic proportions (a landslide that will happen even without a terrorist attack).
So, what of the 25-30% chance that the October Surprise will come from the Bush administration? Bush has very little to lose, and that makes him rather unpredictable. Perhaps another preemptive military action? I hope that is unlikely, our military is already stretched. I guess it will be a surprise.
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