Obama did better in Oregon than expected (+30 rather than the expected +28 delegates). Clinton did better in Kentucky than expected (+37 rather than the expected +28-31 delegates).
According to RCP that brings us to:
| Candidate: | Pledged: | Supers: | Total: | Needs |
| Obama | 1653 | 306 | 1959 | 66 |
| Clinton: | 1499 | 279 | 1778 | 247 |
Update: I updated the table to match final counts from last night.
Note that DemConWatch has 3 more pledged for Obama and 1 more pledged for Clinton than RCP, not sure why.
Careful analysis by Poblano projects that Obama will probably add another 41 and Clinton will add another 45 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico (June 1st), South Dakota, and Montana (both June 3rd). Since my own poll watching and the leaked spreadsheet also agree, let’s treat it as likely, give or take a few delegates.
That means that Obama only needs enough super delegate endorsements between now and those last few primary elections to get to 1984 total (2025 minus the expected 41).
According to RCP that means he only needs 27 more super delegate endorsements to win the nomination. At this point, with 212 uncommitted, I consider that to be very likely. The beautiful fact is that if at least 27 super delegates endorse Obama, but no more than 68 do; then it will not be a super delegate’s endorsement, but a pledged delegate vote won in one of the three remaining primaries that puts Obama over the top.
That would be elegant and beautiful. So watch the total delegates column for Obama; if he gets to 1984 this nomination will be over on June 3rd, and it will have been nice to give every eligible state and territory the chance to vote. For the ever hopeful, Clinton only needs to get to 1980 to achieve the same thing (because she is projected to squeeze a few more delegates out of Puerto Rico than he is). To get to 1980, she’d need 205 super delegate endorsements between now and June 1st…. still possible, but highly unlikely.
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