I have been updating a spreadsheet with delegate and super delegate counts, and projections, and poll data of the remaining states and territories; and for the last couple of weeks RealClearPolitics has been reporting different numbers than DemConWatch pretty consistently.
According to RCP, Obama only needs 117 more delegates to win; but according to DemConWatch he needs 113. Both delegate tracking sites agree that Clinton needs 306 delegates to win.
Tomorrow, Hillary Clinton will likely pick up between 28 and 34 delegates from Kentucky and between 23 and 24 from Oregon (51-58 total). Barack Obama will pick up between 17 and 23 from Kentucky and between 28 and 29 from Oregon (45-52 total). Neither will have enough delegates to declare victory, but Obama will only need between 65 and 72 per RCP and between 61 and 68 per DCW. Clinton would still need around 250 to win. There are something like 222 uncommitted super delegates. It will still be possible for her to win (that remains possible because Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota still have 189 pledged delegates to commit).
This still looks like it will not be complete until the first week of June, and Obama is drawing staggeringly large crowds when he speaks publicly.
Update: Today RCP updated it’s numbers and they are closer to DCW now, 112 or 110 depending on which one you follow.
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