Here are my revised predictions for the outcome of the election:

Obama with 393 electoral votes and 57% of popular vote; surprise states include: GA, ND, NC, IN, MO, WV.
The battleground is provably changed because the dynamic is changed. I think if the election were pushed back a month that the popular vote would end up stabilizing around 62% for Obama; but some Americans just have not had time to get to know him yet.

Democrats end up with 61 seats, not counting Lieberman and Sanders; including freshmen Lunsford (KY), Franken (MN), Musgrove (MS), Shaheen (NH), Hagen (NC), Merkley (OR), Martin (GA), Begich (AK), both Udalls (CO and NM), and of course Warner (VA). Yes, I am predicting that all three competitive races in the south (MS, KY, GA) break for the Democrats in this landslide election, and we owe it all to fools like Michele Bachmann who pulled down the last veil hiding Republican indecency and revealed to American voters just how hateful one of the parties has become.

Democrats get 284 house seats to 151 Republicans, many of the races are surprises that suddenly tipped in favor of Democrats because of Bachmann’s comments after a whole season of McCain-Palin foolishness. Openly racist rhetoric and bellicose speeches by junior house members will no longer be tolerated, and voters will dump incumbents more readily in the new era if they say embarrassing things like Virgil Goode and Thelma Drake and Michele Bachmann have been doing. Congress will finally be held accountable for a while.

The hate proposition (Prop 8 ) loses big time in California – by more than 10%; this despite overwhelming funding by the LDS church in Utah. Which will bring into public discussion the tax-free status of religion in America. I do not predict any immediate change, but a period where so-called religious institutions have to be a little more circumspect and less overt in their political involvement so they do not stir up trouble and force the American public to change the tax rules on them.

Sadly, I also predict widespread voter suppression by the Republican party, continued doubts about the validity of our unverified voting process and huge dismay over the wide variances in election procedures from state to state; yet I doubt Americans will demand reform in large enough numbers to actually provide for a verified election, consistent voting rules coast to coast, and removal of the bi-partisan control of our government. They didn’t after the last three contested elections, why should they now?

Three things we should be talking about:

• Verified Voting
• Open Debates
• Instant Runoff Voting

3rd Debate Comments after the fold…

Debate Revisited:
I was not going to write much about the 3rd Presidential Debate held by the CPD between Obama and McCain; but people have been asking me to do so… I confess I did not catch all of it live; and most of it I listened to via WAMU radio. I have since seen it online and I think it is Senator John McCain’s best debate performance yet this election. He was more animated, more connected with his current surroundings, and definitely more aggressive in attacking Senator Obama; but Obama still trounced him soundly. McCain’s specious attacks were all deflected or answered adroitly by the better statesman and debater, and by a clean recitation of the facts rebutting the right-wing talking points. It’s hard to attack when your attacks are invented tripe, and I give McCain kudos for effort; but after failing to rattle Obama with fiction McCain had a bit of a mental meltdown. The majority of the debate (after the first 20 minutes) was filled by sophomoric physical antics by John McCain, who was clearly getting angrier and angrier. For fully 2/3rds of the time, John McCain was completely incoherent. I think that will be the word of the day if not week: incoherent and here is why:

1) Senator McCain could not remember Mrs Michelle Obama’s name!? I suspect we should all get to know the name of our next first lady. Ok, so he’s under a lot of pressure… perhaps he remembered and just decided to disrespect her; but how is that presidential?

2) McCain claimed that Obama voted against the nomination of Justice Breyer? Really?!? I was sure Breyer was a Clinton nominee before Obama was a Senator.

3) Colombia!? Seriously? Two wars, financial crisis, obliteration of our constitution, and McCain wants Obama to visit Colombia? No offense to Colombia nor Colombians, but this is not a valuable use of limited debate time in this election. Yes, agricultural products sent to countries like Colombia are a few jobs and big revenue for giant agricultural businesses in the United States; but investing in renewable energy production would mean much bigger revenues, and many new jobs for Americans. Unburdening small businesses with the costs of health care insurance helps American businesses compete and gets Americans jobs and provides more health care.

4) WTF is Senator McCain talking about regarding people disrespecting his rally attendees who have ball caps? We were calling out his own and Sarah Palin’s deliberate inciting of violent rhetoric; not attacking his supporters who are clearly doing exactly what they’ve been trained and encouraged to do. He is clearly confused.

5) Health Care costs; McCain clearly lives in a fantasy world of congressional entitlements and forgot what the rest of us have to deal with during his over-long tenure in the Senate. Time for him to experience the real world again.

6) McCain’s interruptions and audible hyperventilation, his eye-rolls and tongue juts are shameful signs of his disrespect for Obama, for the party that nominated Obama, and for debate audiences. Respect engenders respect. Mocking antics beget mocking antics. How can Senator McCain expect to be taken seriously?

7) McCain was unable to even keep basic facts straight and kept bouncing between his various contradictory messages with no smooth transitions.

He cannot even keep Autism and Downes Syndrome straight, not even when it’s his own picked running mate’s child who has special needs.

9) He cannot be bothered to read his opponent’s health care and tax plans; he looked completely gobsmacked when Obama answered his question about how much everyman “Joe the Plumber” would have to pay in taxes for health care. When your opponent actually has already answered the question, wouldn’t you at least rephrase it to confuse him? Failing that, you should not be surprised when your opponent has a simple, prepared answer to the question he knew people would ask a year ago. McCain is clearly not prepared to be President himself.

10) When asked about his choice in running mate, McCain can only come up with the pure B.S. that he thinks Palin is a reformer!? Either he is fooled completely or he’s lying to pander to his base. Palin is clearly and obviously no reformer; she’s a cynical and insulting pick selected to pander to a faux Christian base that wants the end of times to happen now.

In summary: people may think it was a close debate; but they are wrong. Look for Senator Obama to pick up an additional 3-5% lead after that last debate.

It was the best debate of the series, but still not as good as an Open Debate would be. The CPD is a lousy debate organization; strictly bi-partisan rather than non-partisan, hiding transparency through fallacious copyright claims, and not open to either third party participation or citizen demands for more challenging questions. I would much prefer we scrap the show and get into the nitty-gritty business of real debates; then voters might actually get informed.