Life is a State of Mind

I predicted a Clinton win in Pennsylvania, but only by 6% a month ago… so the 10% margin this morning is disappointing. I blame ABC News and that horribly moderated Republican talking point trap last Wednesday night. Television audiences are still huge compared to newspaper, radio, blogs, and campaign rallies. Even though it was a sham debate by partisan hacks, and even though a record number of people realized it and complained loudly on ABC’s own comment collection site, an astonishingly large number of people watched it and were influenced by the Rovian tactics played out by the so-called moderators.

It is clear that Democratic candidates who want fair debates should refuse to debate anyone unless they are moderated by decent moderators with a proven track record for staying focused on the pertinent issues… like the League of Women Voters. The League has an fantastic record, and only people afraid of a fair debate would refuse their moderation.

The over-vaunted “double digit” win for Clinton does not really change much. The bad news is this slug-fest of an election will go on through at least May 6th, and possibly longer now… the good news is that the primary will go on through at least May 6th and possibly even longer now.
Yes that is both good and bad. The bad is it means more free ride time for John McSame. The good news is that more state’s voters get to participate in the most important primary season in my memory. It is good news for the people of Indiana and North Carolina, and possibly good news for West Virginia, Kentucky, and Oregon. Possible decision points are now May 7th, May 21st, and June 4th… (those are each the day after primary elections with a fair number of delegates, though none have as many as PA does). Obama is still the man to beat because he has accumulated 1,719 delegates versus Clinton’s 1,588.

According to the New York Times there are 227 delegates between now and May 6th, an additional 164 delegates between then and May 20th, and an additional 110 between then and June 3rd. That is only 501 remaining delegates in the remaining states. Either candidate would need 2,025 delegates. Do the math… It is very unlikely that Clinton can win this on delegate counts, she’d have to win nearly all the remaining ones. It is now dodgy wether Obama can win this on delegate counts, he needs only 306 more; but that means averaging 61% of the remaining contests… the Pennsylvania disappointment probably means that this is going all the way to the August convention. It means that an endorsement from Edwards really matters.

One thing that baffles me is how can so many allegedly “blue collar” workers vote for Clinton? That is clearly a vote against their own economic self-interest. Edwards should be their candidate of choice, and I can see them not being enthusiast either Clinton or Obama, but the news is saying they are opting for Clinton. I am scratching my head in confusion.

Interesting comparison, probably invalid for dozens of reasons, but… over 2,300,000 registered as Democrats and voted in yesterday’s primary election… For a primary, turnout was very high; but several workers were saying it was like a general election. Was it?

2004 Presidential Election per Wikipedia:

That means that in the 2004 general election, more people voted for John Kerry than voted for both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama yesterday. It means that more voted for George Bush than voted for both candidates yesterday. It means that despite registering nearly 600,000 new Democratic voters this cycle, the number of people who actually vote Democratic in a general election was under-represented. Some sources say that 52% of registered Democrats voted, if that is true then there must be roughly 4.5 million registered Democrats in Pennsylvania at this time… where were the other 48% yesterday? Where will they be in November?

I think Pennsylvania is a pretty solidly Democratic state either way (which is good news).