Comments on: What 9.174699654% in PA leaves us with… http://blog.scottnolan.org/2008/04/23/what-9174699654-in-pa-leaves-us-with/ ideas, thoughts, rants Thu, 04 Dec 2008 04:03:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: snolan http://blog.scottnolan.org/2008/04/23/what-9174699654-in-pa-leaves-us-with/#comment-17288 snolan Tue, 29 Apr 2008 21:45:12 +0000 http://blog.scottnolan.org/?p=477#comment-17288 Given recent polling data as the May 6th primaries get closer, I'd like to revise the predictions for these two states: RealClearPolitics has Obama leading in North Carolina by only 10% now, so I now predict Obama will snag 64 pledged delegates to Clinton's 51 (which is still better than the leaked memo predicted: 61 and 54). RealClearPolitics has Clinton leading by a tiny 2.2% in Indiana, but I am skewing that 3.5% in Clinton's favor because of well known racism in Southern Indiana; so call it for Clinton by 5.7% and she gets 38 delegates to his 34 (which is a reverse of the leaked spreadsheet which had him getting 39 to her 33)... I wonder if the Obama campaign knows something I am missing? I expect the Indiana polling to continue to be all over the place for the next week, so I am not locking this one down yet... whatever RCP has the last day, then skew a few points to Clinton will be final prediction. We are still on target to basically split the remaining 408 pledged delegates right down the middle, and for enough supers to declare for Obama to win in June. Given recent polling data as the May 6th primaries get closer, I’d like to revise the predictions for these two states:

RealClearPolitics has Obama leading in North Carolina by only 10% now, so I now predict Obama will snag 64 pledged delegates to Clinton’s 51 (which is still better than the leaked memo predicted: 61 and 54).

RealClearPolitics has Clinton leading by a tiny 2.2% in Indiana, but I am skewing that 3.5% in Clinton’s favor because of well known racism in Southern Indiana; so call it for Clinton by 5.7% and she gets 38 delegates to his 34 (which is a reverse of the leaked spreadsheet which had him getting 39 to her 33)… I wonder if the Obama campaign knows something I am missing? I expect the Indiana polling to continue to be all over the place for the next week, so I am not locking this one down yet… whatever RCP has the last day, then skew a few points to Clinton will be final prediction.

We are still on target to basically split the remaining 408 pledged delegates right down the middle, and for enough supers to declare for Obama to win in June.

]]> By: snolan http://blog.scottnolan.org/2008/04/23/what-9174699654-in-pa-leaves-us-with/#comment-17200 snolan Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:27:26 +0000 http://blog.scottnolan.org/?p=477#comment-17200 xcurmudgeon, I agree about the supers committing here and there, and all of the forecasts change slightly with each commitment and with each state or territory's results from an actual primary or caucus.. it is just interesting to take polling data and forecast one likely path to take the wind out of the media hype and get a real feel for how the nomination is going. So my ~233 number comes from Politico, NYTimes, and RealPolitics... am I reading their number wrong (uncommitted super delegates)? Or are they being too confident that once a super declared, they will stick to that declaration? Can a super change their position, and if so when do they actually get counted? Ben, thanks for the link, and yeah - the only substantive change is the number of people willing to contribute money... which makes one wonder... if PA was seen by those contributors as a positive result for her (which I maintain it was not), I wonder what they were expecting? Very interesting. Obama has still raised far more money. xcurmudgeon, I agree about the supers committing here and there, and all of the forecasts change slightly with each commitment and with each state or territory’s results from an actual primary or caucus.. it is just interesting to take polling data and forecast one likely path to take the wind out of the media hype and get a real feel for how the nomination is going.

So my ~233 number comes from Politico, NYTimes, and RealPolitics… am I reading their number wrong (uncommitted super delegates)? Or are they being too confident that once a super declared, they will stick to that declaration? Can a super change their position, and if so when do they actually get counted?

Ben, thanks for the link, and yeah - the only substantive change is the number of people willing to contribute money… which makes one wonder… if PA was seen by those contributors as a positive result for her (which I maintain it was not), I wonder what they were expecting? Very interesting. Obama has still raised far more money.

]]> By: Ben http://blog.scottnolan.org/2008/04/23/what-9174699654-in-pa-leaves-us-with/#comment-17196 Ben Thu, 24 Apr 2008 10:44:06 +0000 http://blog.scottnolan.org/?p=477#comment-17196 You'll find this blog post from the NYTimes interesting as it helps put things back into perspective... http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/scoring-the-pennsylvania-primary/ I've stopped readying the mainstream press. It's just gotten too ridiculous. Nothing has effectively changed, yet they act like she's suddenly made a huge turnaround in momentum. The only change of import is that her fundraising abilities have rebounded. This is not so much thanks to PA as it is to the media declaring how much she's winning. Sad, really, what lies will get you. If Americans are supposedly simpletons, then the mass media are a prime example. You’ll find this blog post from the NYTimes interesting as it helps put things back into perspective…
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/scoring-the-pennsylvania-primary/

I’ve stopped readying the mainstream press. It’s just gotten too ridiculous. Nothing has effectively changed, yet they act like she’s suddenly made a huge turnaround in momentum. The only change of import is that her fundraising abilities have rebounded. This is not so much thanks to PA as it is to the media declaring how much she’s winning. Sad, really, what lies will get you. If Americans are supposedly simpletons, then the mass media are a prime example.

]]> By: xcurmudgeon http://blog.scottnolan.org/2008/04/23/what-9174699654-in-pa-leaves-us-with/#comment-17186 xcurmudgeon Thu, 24 Apr 2008 02:00:36 +0000 http://blog.scottnolan.org/?p=477#comment-17186 You've got it basically right, but you're off on the number of uncommitted superdelegates left--it's roughly 300, of which Hillary would need more than two-thirds by the end of the primaries in June, but Obama would need just about 100 or so. Also, the supers will continue committing in dribs and drabs along the way, such that Obama is likely to be within well under 100 delegates of the magic number by June 3, which should get the rest of the supers to jump on the bandwagon. You’ve got it basically right, but you’re off on the number of uncommitted superdelegates left–it’s roughly 300, of which Hillary would need more than two-thirds by the end of the primaries in June, but Obama would need just about 100 or so.

Also, the supers will continue committing in dribs and drabs along the way, such that Obama is likely to be within well under 100 delegates of the magic number by June 3, which should get the rest of the supers to jump on the bandwagon.

]]> By: snolan http://blog.scottnolan.org/2008/04/23/what-9174699654-in-pa-leaves-us-with/#comment-17182 snolan Wed, 23 Apr 2008 21:24:34 +0000 http://blog.scottnolan.org/?p=477#comment-17182 I totally forgot about the leaked spreadsheet from February... it is amazing how well those early predictions are holding up today... and how close the polls are bearing out the Obama campaign's projections... <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html</a> I totally forgot about the leaked spreadsheet from February… it is amazing how well those early predictions are holding up today… and how close the polls are bearing out the Obama campaign’s projections…

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html

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